---
title: "Implied move"
description: "Implied move translates each expiry's implied volatility into the number you actually want: how big a move is the options market pricing in by that date?"
---

# Implied move

Implied move translates each expiry's implied volatility into the number you actually want: **how big a move is the options market pricing in by that date?** One bar per expiry, days to expiry along the X axis, each bar the one-standard-deviation move priced in by then.

![Implied move bars per expiry under a BTC chart](/learn/options/options-implied-move--hero.png)

## Add it to your chart

1. Open **Indicators** in the top bar.
2. Search for **Options Implied Move** and click it once. The bars render in their own pane under the chart.

## Fullscreen

Use the legend's maximize button, or double-click the pane, to fill the chart with it; Esc restores the previous layout. Maximized, the bars get denser ticks and larger text.

## How to read it

Each bar is roughly a 68 percent confidence band: the market "expects" price to stay inside plus or minus that move by that expiry about two-thirds of the time, **if** the priced vol is right.

- Read the front bars for event pricing and the far bars for how much uncertainty the market carries further out.
- The **Unit** toggle switches between percent of price (default) and USD, the same number scaled by the current chart price.

## The math

Per expiry ([conventions](/learn/options/concepts)):

$$\text{move} = \mathrm{IV}_{\mathrm{ATM}} \times \sqrt{\mathrm{DTE}/365}$$

where $\mathrm{IV}_{\mathrm{ATM}}$ is that expiry's own at-the-money implied volatility, read from the OTM-stitched smile at the expiry's forward, and $\mathrm{DTE}$ is days to expiry.

## Settings

| Setting    | What it does                                                              | Default |
| ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------- |
| Unit       | Percent of price or USD                                                   | Percent |
| Theme      | Color theme for the pane: series colors, fills, and accents (six choices) | Aurora  |
| Fill style | Reserved for a future filled look; today's bars don't render an area fill | Soft    |
| Refresh    | Poll cadence in seconds (30 to 600)                                       | 60      |

## Assumptions

- The move-to-percent conversion assumes lognormal returns (the standard square-root-of-time scaling); it says nothing about skew or the fat tails options markets actually price.
- The USD figure anchors to your chart's own last close when it sits within 3 percent of the venue's own forward for the nearest expiry, and falls back to that forward otherwise, so a wildly divergent price series can't distort the dollar figure.
- Refreshes on the pane's own poll, default 60 seconds, same as the rest of the suite.

## Trade around it, honestly

- **Event pricing**: does the move priced into the post-CPI expiry look big or small against your own view? That gap is the trade.
- **Stop and target sanity**: a target far outside the priced move needs a reason vol is wrong, because the market is telling you the odds it assigns.
- **Straddle shopping**: the bar is approximately what a straddle buyer pays, so it doubles as a cost-of-optionality readout.
- **Skeptical caveat**: this is a statement of price, not a forecast. By construction, realized moves exceed the implied one about a third of the time, and event days are exactly where the distribution is least normal.

{% hint style="info" %}
**Related**

[Term structure](/learn/options/term-structure) shows the ATM vol these bars scale, the [IV smile](/learn/options/iv-smile) shows how vol varies by strike, and the [Vol matrix](/learn/options/vol-matrix) lays out the raw IV grid behind both.
{% endhint %}