[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":8728},["ShallowReactive",2],{"wrun-open-editor-url":3,"indicators:cookbook/odds-vs-price":4},"https://openmarket.xyz/chart/#wrun-open=v1",{"slug":5,"filePath":6,"frontmatter":7,"rawMarkdown":12,"tree":13},"cookbook/odds-vs-price","cookbook/odds-vs-price.md",{"title":8,"description":9,"order":10,"section":11},"Odds vs price","On a Polymarket chart, the market's YES odds set against a pinned asset, Binance Futures BTCUSDT by default. A pane below price holds the rolling correlation…",101,"cookbook","---\ntitle: \"Odds vs price\"\ndescription: \"On a Polymarket chart, the market's YES odds set against a pinned asset, Binance Futures BTCUSDT by default. A pane below price holds the rolling correlation…\"\norder: 101\nsection: \"cookbook\"\n---\n\n\u003C!-- source: docs/indicators/cookbook/odds-vs-price.md; generated by packages/cli/scripts/gen-indicator-docs.ts, do not edit -->\n\n# Odds vs price\n\n![Polymarket odds vs BTC: correlation pane, divergence bars, verdict card](/wrun/images/odds-vs-price.png)\n\nOn a Polymarket chart, the market's YES odds set against a pinned asset, Binance Futures BTCUSDT by default. A pane below price holds the rolling correlation of odds changes and BTC returns (sky line, -1 to 1) and a divergence histogram: the odds' z-score minus BTC's over the z-score window, slate while inside the threshold and lit amber (odds stretched above BTC's move) or orange (below) once past it. On the odds candles, a dot marks the bar where the divergence first crossed the threshold. A window below the chart shows BTC's own close over the last two correlation windows, so the move the odds are measured against is on screen. A card at the top right reads the market's odds, BTC's price and its move over the window, the correlation, the divergence and a plain-words verdict.\n\nThe parts are one candle leg pinned to another market ([Multi-source](../core-concepts/multi-source.md)), the `Correlation` and `Zscore` helpers ([TA library](../functions/ta-library.md)), a histogram with a four-colour ladder ([Styling](../presentation/styling.md)), a frame feeding a `panel.line` on a time axis and a `draw.card` with text slots ([Cards, frames and panels](../presentation/cards-frames-panels.md)). This is also the `odds-vs-price` template: the **Odds vs Price** card under **Prediction markets** in the editor's starter list, and it compiles as written.\n\n## The wrun indicator\n\n```typescript sample=odds-vs-price\n// Odds vs Price: on a Polymarket chart, the market's YES odds against a pinned asset (Binance Futures BTCUSDT).\n// A pane with the rolling correlation of odds changes and asset returns, a divergence histogram (the odds' z-score\n// minus the asset's, lit past the threshold), the asset's own close in a window below the chart, and a card with the\n// live reading. The trader sees whether the odds are moving with the asset or have stretched away from it.\n\nparam.int(\"window\", 48, { min: 10, max: 500, label: \"Correlation window in bars\", description: \"Bars in the rolling correlation\" });\nparam.int(\"zscore_window\", 96, { min: 10, max: 500, label: \"Z-score window in bars\", description: \"Bars the divergence z-scores are measured over\" });\nparam.number(\"threshold\", 2, { min: 0.5, max: 5, step: 0.1, label: \"Stretch threshold\", description: \"Divergence z-score that counts as stretched\" });\ninput(\"close\", ohlcv.close, { description: \"This chart's close: the YES odds on a Polymarket market\" }); // the primary input: the chart's own candles\ninput(\"asset_close\", ohlcv.close, { exchange: \"BINANCE_FUTURES\", symbol: \"BTCUSDT\", missing: \"carry\", description: \"The asset leg: BTCUSDT on Binance Futures\" }); // pinned: change the pair here\nconst correlationLine = output(\"correlation\", line, lower, { color: \"#38bdf8\", width: 2, label: \"Correlation\", format: \"0.00\", description: \"Rolling correlation of odds changes and asset returns, -1 to 1\" }); // the handle names it for the hover card\noutput(\"divergence\", histogram, lower, { color_by: \"div_tone\", colors: [\"#475569\", \"#475569\", \"#f8c000\", \"#f86800\"], label: \"Divergence\", format: \"0.00\", description: \"Odds z-score minus asset z-score\" }); // slate inside the threshold, amber or orange once stretched; two decimals in the legend\nhover(correlationLine, [block.value(\"Correlation\", \"correlation\", { format: \"0.00\" }), block.rows([[\"Divergence\", \"divergence\", \"0.00\"]])]); // the card the correlation line opens under the cursor\noutput(\"div_tone\", none, lower, { description: \"0 mild up, 1 mild down, 2 stretched up, 3 stretched down\" }); // data-only: the histogram's ladder\noutput(\"stretch_up\", shape, overlay, { color: \"#f8c000\", width: 6, description: \"The close of the bar where the divergence first crossed above the threshold\" }); // an event dot on the odds candle\noutput(\"stretch_down\", shape, overlay, { color: \"#f86800\", width: 6, description: \"The close of the bar where the divergence first crossed below minus the threshold\" });\nstring(\"market_line\", { max_bytes: 24 }); // \"Odds 62.0%\" or \"Price 0.1423\"\nstring(\"asset_line\", { max_bytes: 24 }); // \"84,210\"\nstring(\"move_text\", { max_bytes: 24 }); // \"+0.4%\" over the correlation window\nstring(\"corr_text\", { max_bytes: 16 }); // \"0.29\"\nstring(\"div_text\", { max_bytes: 16 }); // \"+3.97\"\nstring(\"reading\", { max_bytes: 24 }); // the plain-words verdict, at most 24 characters (the card clips longer values)\nconst asset_rows = frame(\"asset_rows\", { max_bytes: 16384 }); // the asset window: [bar open, asset close] for the last 2 x window bars\npanel.line({ name: \"asset_window\", title: \"Asset leg: BTCUSDT on Binance Futures\", x: \"time\", place: \"below\", frame: asset_rows, legend_style: \"none\", series: [{ name: \"BTC close\", color: \"#f8c000\" }] }); // no series chip beside the title: the one series is named once, by its value row\ndraw.card(\"odds_vs_asset\", {\n  title: \"Odds vs BTC\",\n  anchor: \"top_right\",\n  offset: [0, 40], // below the chart's own High tag, which always sits in the pane's top-right corner\n  background_opacity: 1, // an opaque surface: the candles under the card never show through its rows\n  rows: [\n    { label: \"This market\", value: { text: \"market_line\" } },\n    { label: \"BTC\", value: { text: \"asset_line\" } },\n    { label: \"BTC move, window\", value: { text: \"move_text\" } },\n    { label: \"Correlation\", value: { text: \"corr_text\" } },\n    { label: \"Divergence\", value: { text: \"div_text\" }, color: { color_by: \"div_tone\", colors: [\"#e2e8f0\", \"#e2e8f0\", \"#f8c000\", \"#f86800\"] } },\n    { label: \"Read\", value: { text: \"reading\" } },\n  ],\n});\n\nconst RING = 1024; // the asset window ring\nconst ringT = new StaticArray\u003Cf64>(RING); const ringAsset = new StaticArray\u003Cf64>(RING); let head = -1; let count = 0;\nconst jsonBytes = new StaticArray\u003Cu8>(16384); let jsonUsed = 0; // the asset window JSON, appended as UTF-8 bytes (the sandbox forbids memory growth after onStart())\nlet window = 48; let zWindow = 96; let threshold = 2.0; // the params\nlet corr = new Correlation(48); let zOdds = new Zscore(96); let zAsset = new Zscore(96); // rebuilt in onStart()\nlet close: f64 = NaN; let prevClose: f64 = NaN; let asset: f64 = NaN; let prevAsset: f64 = NaN; // the two legs on this bar and the previous one\nlet prevTone: f64 = NaN; // the divergence's tone on the previous bar: the crossing detector\nlet unitScale = true; let centScale = true; let sameMarket = true; let bars = 0; // what this chart looks like: odds 0..1 on a 0.001 grid, odds 0..100 on a 0.1 grid, or the asset itself\n\nfunction round2(v: f64): f64 { return Math.round(v * 100.0) / 100.0; }\nfunction offGrid(v: f64, step: f64): bool { const k = v / step; return Math.abs(k - Math.round(k)) > 1e-6; }\n// ── JSON bytes: append text and numbers without allocating; one string is made per frame write ──\nfunction jbByte(b: u32): void { if (jsonUsed \u003C jsonBytes.length) { jsonBytes[jsonUsed] = \u003Cu8>b; jsonUsed += 1; } }\nfunction jbText(text: String): void {\n  const n = String.UTF8.byteLength(text);\n  if (jsonUsed + n \u003C= jsonBytes.length) jsonUsed += i32(String.UTF8.encodeUnsafe(changetype\u003Cusize>(text), text.length, changetype\u003Cusize>(jsonBytes) + jsonUsed));\n}\nfunction jbUint(v: u64): void { if (v >= 10) jbUint(v / 10); jbByte(0x30 + \u003Cu32>(v % 10)); }\nfunction jbNum(v: f64, decimals: i32): void { // a fixed-point number, or null when not finite\n  if (!isFinite(v)) { jbText(\"null\"); return; }\n  let x = v; if (x \u003C 0.0) { jbByte(0x2d); x = -x; }\n  let scale = 1.0; for (let i = 0; i \u003C decimals; i += 1) scale *= 10.0;\n  const scaled = Math.round(x * scale); const whole = Math.floor(scaled / scale); const frac = scaled - whole * scale;\n  jbUint(\u003Cu64>whole);\n  if (decimals > 0) { jbByte(0x2e); const f = \u003Cu64>frac; let digits = 1; let probe = f; while (probe >= 10) { probe /= 10; digits += 1; } for (let i = digits; i \u003C decimals; i += 1) jbByte(0x30); jbUint(f); }\n}\nfunction jbFlush(slot: i32): void { writeFrame(slot, String.UTF8.decodeUnsafe(changetype\u003Cusize>(jsonBytes), jsonUsed)); jsonUsed = 0; }\nfunction sbGrouped(n: i64): void { if (n >= 1000) { sbGrouped(n / 1000); sb_text(\",\"); const r = n % 1000; if (r \u003C 100) sb_text(\"0\"); if (r \u003C 10) sb_text(\"0\"); sb_int(r); } else sb_int(n); }\nfunction sbPrice(v: f64): void { if (v >= 1000.0) sbGrouped(i64(Math.round(v))); else if (v >= 100.0) sb_f64(v, 2); else if (v >= 1.0) sb_f64(v, 3); else sb_f64(v, 4); }\n\nfunction onStart(): void {\n  window = i32(p_window()); zWindow = i32(p_zscore_window()); threshold = p_threshold();\n  corr = new Correlation(window); zOdds = new Zscore(zWindow); zAsset = new Zscore(zWindow);\n  memory.grow(2); // headroom for the one frame string per write: the sandbox forbids growth after onStart()\n}\n// onBar() runs once per bar: the bar's odds change against the asset's log return into the correlation, both levels into their\n// z-scores; then the pane's two series and the card's words on every ready bar, the asset window on the live bar only.\nfunction onBar(): void {\n  prevClose = close; prevAsset = asset; close = bar.close(); asset = in_asset_close(); const t = bar.time();\n  if (isNaN(close) || isNaN(asset)) return;\n  bars += 1;\n  if (close \u003C 0.0 || close > 1.0 || offGrid(close, 0.001)) unitScale = false; // odds as 0..1 tick in thousandths\n  if (close \u003C 0.0 || close > 100.0 || offGrid(close, 0.1)) centScale = false; // odds as 0..100 tick in tenths of a cent\n  if (Math.abs(asset - close) > 1e-9 * Math.max(1.0, Math.abs(close))) sameMarket = false;\n  head = (head + 1) % RING; if (count \u003C RING) count += 1; ringT[head] = t; ringAsset[head] = asset;\n  const oddsChange = isNaN(prevClose) ? NaN : close - prevClose;\n  const assetReturn = isNaN(prevAsset) || prevAsset \u003C= 0.0 ? NaN : Math.log(asset / prevAsset);\n  const correlation = isNaN(oddsChange) || isNaN(assetReturn) ? NaN : corr.update(oddsChange, assetReturn);\n  const zo = zOdds.update(close); const za = zAsset.update(Math.log(asset));\n  const divergence = isNaN(zo) || isNaN(za) ? NaN : zo - za;\n  const tone = isNaN(divergence) ? 0.0 : Math.abs(divergence) >= threshold ? (divergence > 0.0 ? 2.0 : 3.0) : divergence > 0.0 ? 0.0 : 1.0;\n  const stretchUp = tone == 2.0 && prevTone != 2.0 && !isNaN(prevTone) ? close : NaN; // the event dots: the close on the bar the divergence crossed the threshold, NaN elsewhere\n  const stretchDown = tone == 3.0 && prevTone != 3.0 && !isNaN(prevTone) ? close : NaN;\n  prevTone = isNaN(divergence) ? NaN : tone;\n  if (isNaN(correlation) || isNaN(divergence)) return; // still warming up: nothing is written on this bar\n  out_correlation(round2(correlation)); out_divergence(Math.abs(divergence) \u003C 0.005 ? NaN : round2(divergence)); out_div_tone(tone); out_stretch_up(stretchUp); out_stretch_down(stretchDown); // a zero-height bar is skipped\n  sb_clear(); if (unitScale) { sb_text(\"Odds \"); sb_f64(close * 100.0, 1); sb_text(\"%\"); } else if (centScale) { sb_text(\"Odds \"); sb_f64(close, 1); sb_text(\"%\"); } else { sb_text(\"Price \"); sbPrice(close); } str_market_line_sb();\n  const back = window \u003C count ? window : count - 1; const agoAsset = ringAsset[(head + RING - back) % RING];\n  sb_clear(); sbPrice(asset); str_asset_line_sb();\n  sb_clear(); if (agoAsset > 0.0) { const move = ((asset - agoAsset) / agoAsset) * 100.0; if (move >= 0.0) sb_text(\"+\"); sb_f64(move, 1); sb_text(\"% over \"); sb_int(back); sb_text(\" bars\"); } else sb_text(\"n/a\"); str_move_text_sb();\n  sb_clear(); sb_f64(correlation, 2); str_corr_text_sb();\n  sb_clear(); if (divergence > 0.0) sb_text(\"+\"); sb_f64(divergence, 2); str_div_text_sb();\n  sb_clear();\n  const odds = unitScale || centScale; // the words follow the chart: odds on a prediction market, the market itself elsewhere\n  if (sameMarket && bars > 4) sb_text(\"Chart is the asset leg\");\n  else if (divergence >= threshold) sb_text(odds ? \"Odds stretched above BTC\" : \"Stretched above BTC\");\n  else if (divergence \u003C= -threshold) sb_text(odds ? \"Odds stretched below BTC\" : \"Stretched below BTC\");\n  else if (correlation > 0.3) sb_text(odds ? \"Odds moving with BTC\" : \"Moving with BTC\");\n  else if (correlation \u003C -0.3) sb_text(odds ? \"Odds moving against BTC\" : \"Moving against BTC\");\n  else sb_text(odds ? \"Odds detached from BTC\" : \"Detached from BTC\");\n  str_reading_sb();\n  if (bar.isLast()) { // the asset window: [bar open in seconds, asset close], oldest first\n    const shown = count \u003C 2 * window ? count : 2 * window; const decimals = asset >= 100.0 ? 2 : 6;\n    jbText(\"{\\\"rows\\\":[\");\n    for (let k = shown - 1; k >= 0; k -= 1) { const i = (head + RING - k) % RING; if (k != shown - 1) jbText(\",\"); jbText(\"[\"); jbNum(ringT[i], 0); jbText(\",\"); jbNum(ringAsset[i], decimals); jbText(\"]\"); }\n    jbText(\"]}\"); jbFlush(FRAME_ASSET_ROWS);\n  }\n}\n```\n\n## How it works\n\n**One pinned leg.** `input(\"asset_close\", ohlcv.close, { exchange: \"BINANCE_FUTURES\", symbol: \"BTCUSDT\", missing: \"carry\" })` reads the asset's close on the chart's own grid; to compare against another asset, change the exchange and symbol in that one line. The chart's close is the primary input: the YES odds on a Polymarket market.\n\n**Correlation and divergence.** `correlation` is the rolling correlation of odds changes and asset returns over `window` (48) bars. `divergence` is the odds' z-score minus the asset's over `zscore_window` (96) bars; `div_tone` reads 0 mild up, 1 mild down, 2 stretched up, 3 stretched down from it against `threshold` (2), and the histogram's `color_by: \"div_tone\"` ladder paints slate, slate, amber, orange; `format: \"0.00\"` prints it in the legend with two decimals (\"-0.43\"), never a rounded \"-0\". `stretch_up` and `stretch_down` carry the close on the bar the divergence first crossed the threshold, the dots on the odds candles.\n\n**The asset is on screen.** `frame(\"asset_rows\")` carries `[bar open, asset close]` for the last two correlation windows and feeds `panel.line` on a time axis below the chart; `legend_style: \"none\"` leaves the one series out of the chips beside the panel's title, so its name reads once, on its value row. The card's cells (odds, the asset's price and move, the correlation, the divergence, a verdict of at most 24 characters) are text slots written on the live bar, on an opaque surface (`background_opacity: 1`) so the candles under the card never show through its rows.\n\n## Where it runs\n\nPolymarket markets on charts of one minute and coarser (the card reads odds on the 0..1 and the 0..100 scale). The chart serves the pinned leg as another market's candles at the chart's interval, joined bar by bar and live from that market's candle feed. On any other crypto chart it still runs: the first leg is then the chart's own price, so the pane reads as relative strength against BTC, the card labels the row \"Price\" and the verdict drops the word odds; on the BTCUSDT perp itself the two legs are one series and the card says \"Chart is the asset leg\". An alert on this indicator reads the pinned BTC leg as well, since alerts serve another market's candles on a secondary `ohlcv` input ([Alerts](../functions/alerts.md)); the file reads the odds as the chart's own `ohlcv` candles, never the `odds` source alerts cannot evaluate. The BTC pin is another market at the chart's interval, not a coarser timeframe, so the alert keeps 500 bars, the largest maximum among its settings, which holds the default 48 and 96-bar windows.\n\n## When data is missing\n\nThe pane needs `zscore_window` bars of both legs before it draws; a bar without an asset observation carries the last one; a divergence under 0.005 draws no bar.\n\n## Customize it\n\n- **Another asset.** Change the `exchange` and `symbol` words on the pinned input (declaration literals, not settings) and the panel's title.\n- **A stricter stretch.** Raise `threshold`; the dots and the lit bars thin out.\n- **A longer memory.** `window` and `zscore_window` go up to 500 bars each.\n\n## Run it\n\n1. In the editor's Explorer, press the **Templates** icon (\"Browse starter templates\") and pick **Odds vs Price** under **Prediction markets**.\n2. Press **Run** on a Polymarket market's chart: the pane, the asset window below the chart and the card draw once both legs have `zscore_window` bars.\n3. At the editor's Console prompt, type `last 20 divergence` to read the divergence of the last 20 bars.\n\n## Concepts used\n\n- [Multi-source](../core-concepts/multi-source.md) for pinned symbol and exchange legs\n- [TA library](../functions/ta-library.md) for `Correlation` and `Zscore`\n- [Cards, frames and panels](../presentation/cards-frames-panels.md) for frames, `panel.line`, `draw.card` and text slots\n",{"type":14,"children":15,"data":8721,"position":8723},"root",[16,26,29,30,51,52,67,68,332,333,351,352,7537,7538,7554,7555,7607,7608,7835,7836,7965,7966,7982,7983,8082,8083,8098,8099,8131,8132,8147,8148,8341,8342,8358,8359,8542,8543,8558,8559],{"type":17,"value":18,"position":19},"comment"," source: docs/indicators/cookbook/odds-vs-price.md; generated by packages/cli/scripts/gen-indicator-docs.ts, do not edit ",{"start":20,"end":23},{"line":21,"column":21,"offset":22},1,0,{"line":21,"column":24,"offset":25},129,128,{"type":27,"value":28},"text","\n",{"type":27,"value":28},{"type":31,"tagName":32,"properties":33,"children":34,"position":48},"element","p",{},[35],{"type":31,"tagName":36,"properties":37,"children":40,"position":41},"img",{"src":38,"alt":39},"/wrun/images/odds-vs-price.png","Polymarket odds vs BTC: correlation pane, divergence bars, verdict card",[],{"start":42,"end":45},{"line":43,"column":21,"offset":44},5,147,{"line":43,"column":46,"offset":47},107,253,{"start":49,"end":50},{"line":43,"column":21,"offset":44},{"line":43,"column":46,"offset":47},{"type":27,"value":28},{"type":31,"tagName":32,"properties":53,"children":54,"position":64},{},[55],{"type":27,"value":56,"position":57},"On a Polymarket chart, the market's YES odds set against a pinned asset, Binance Futures BTCUSDT by default. 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